As a basketball fan, I’ve made my share of gut calls. Here, I turn that instinct into a framework that blends intuition with data/ML. Starting from baseline team strength, experience, and matchup fundamentals, I compute series-wise predictions and simulate the bracket to get round-by-round probabilities and a championship verdict. You’ll see the inputs, the blind spots, and where the model expects chaos—a sober counterweight to hype and hot takes.

I love using numbers to explain the world - and as a football fan, I can clearly tell you where I was for certain goals while some entire tournaments are a blur. Naturally, I pulled out a spreadsheet to see why.

I poked at metrics goals, extra time & penalties, fouls, close group stages etc - all to try and quantify what makes football World Cups feel electric.

What’s the point? Nothing much; just the joy of watching the beautiful game, lightly quantified.

It all begins with an idea.

It all begins with an idea.